PokerzinPoker is a game of incomplete information, but the deck is always the same: 52 cards. That means the chance of almost everything can be calculated. You don't need to memorize every number, but knowing a few changes how you see each hand: it tells you when to get excited, when to be patient and when your opponent probably doesn't have what they claim.
The cards you are dealt
There are 1,326 possible two-card combinations. From that:
| Being dealt | Chance | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| Pocket Aces | 0.45% | 1 in 221 |
| Any pocket pair | 5.9% | 1 in 17 |
| Ace-King (any suits) | 1.2% | 1 in 83 |
| Two suited cards | 23.5% | 1 in 4 |
In other words: pocket Aces are rare. If you wait only for them, you will spend hundreds of hands paying blinds. That is why the guide on starting hands shows a much wider range of playable hands.
What happens on the flop
| You hold | On the flop you make | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Two unpaired cards | At least a pair with one of them | 32% |
| A pocket pair | A set or better | 12% |
| Two suited cards | A made flush | 0.8% |
| Two suited cards | A flush draw (two more of the suit) | 11% |
The most useful number here is the first one: two unpaired cards miss the flop about two thirds of the time. That holds for you and for your opponents, and it is the basis of plays like the continuation bet: most of the time, nobody hit anything.
The second one matters too: a small pair flops a set only once in eight times. Paying a lot to try to hit a set almost never pays off, unless your opponent has plenty of chips to lose when you hit.
The chance of each hand by the river
With seven cards (your two and the five on the board), the best five-card hand a player ends up with is:
| Final hand | Chance |
|---|---|
| Royal flush | 0.003% |
| Straight flush | 0.03% |
| Four of a kind | 0.17% |
| Full house | 2.6% |
| Flush | 3.0% |
| Straight | 4.6% |
| Three of a kind | 4.8% |
| Two pair | 23.5% |
| One pair | 43.8% |
| High card | 17.4% |
Notice that one pair is the most common final hand and that two pair shows up almost one time in four. That is why, with several players going to the end, a single pair is rarely enough.
Who is the favorite before the flop
When all the chips go in before the flop, these are the most common matchups:
| Matchup | Example | Favorite wins |
|---|---|---|
| Higher pair vs lower pair | KK vs 77 | ~80% |
| Dominated hand (same high card) | AK vs AQ | ~74% |
| Two high cards vs two low cards | AK vs 87 | ~60% |
| Pair vs two overcards | 99 vs AK | ~55% |
Pair against two overcards is poker's famous "coin flip": close to 50% each way. The dominated hand is the most expensive trap for beginners: AQ against AK has only three good cards (the Queens) and wins less than one time in four.
How to use these numbers
At the table, what matters most is knowing your chance to improve and comparing it with the price of the bet. That means counting outs, and the guide on outs and pot odds shows the rule of 2 and 4 to do the math in your head. For any exact matchup, use the poker calculator.
Summary: a pocket pair comes 1 time in 17, two unpaired cards miss the flop two times in three, a pocket pair flops a set one time in eight, and a pair against two overcards is close to a coin flip.